Quantum computing is moving from science fiction to boardroom strategy, and Bernstein’s broader tech thesis suggests the winners will be the companies with real pricing power, strong balance sheets, and the ability to invest through the cycle.
Bernstein’s 2025 technology outlook argued that the next phase of tech will reward defensible business models in capital-intensive industries, not just asset-light winners from the last decade.
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| These Two Stocks Could Win the Quantum Computing Race |
Introduction
The hook is simple: quantum is no longer just a futuristic side bet.
Microsoft said on June 2, 2026 that it expects commercially useful quantum machines by 2029, and IBM said on May 28, 2026 that it plans to spend more than $10 billion over five years to help build a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029.
The takeaway for investors is that quantum is still early, but the most credible exposure is not necessarily the pure-play startups.
Morningstar’s quantum analysis says investors looking for exposure today are better served by major cloud and platform names such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and IBM, while warning that pure-play quantum stocks remain highly risky and unprofitable.
Main Body
Why Bernstein thinks quantum matters
Bernstein’s core argument is that technology is entering a more capital-intensive era.
In that world, companies with durable business models, strategic products, and strong financial firepower are better positioned to win.
The firm’s view is that pricing power will be one of the most important traits of the next generation of tech leaders.
Quantum fits that framework because it is expensive to develop, slow to commercialize, and likely to reward companies that can keep investing for years before the payoff arrives.
Reuters reports that IBM and Microsoft are both racing toward 2029 quantum milestones, underscoring how long the runway still is.
Stock snapshot
| Stock | Why it stands out | What the market is watching |
|---|---|---|
| IBM | Bernstein-linked coverage cited 23% upside for IBM tied to early quantum use cases, and Reuters reports IBM is investing more than $10 billion in quantum computing over five years. | IBM is pushing toward a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029 and already operates more than 90 quantum systems, which gives it a more established quantum platform than most rivals. |
| Microsoft | Microsoft is a major platform name with direct quantum exposure, and it said it now expects commercially useful quantum machines by 2029 after unveiling a new quantum chip designed with AI help. | The company’s quantum work is still early, but its scale, cloud reach, and research budget make it one of the most credible long-term ways to own the theme. |
Why these two are different from pure-play quantum stocks
The big advantage for IBM and Microsoft is that quantum is only one part of their investment case.
Morningstar says that is exactly why large-cap platforms may be safer ways to play the theme today: they can fund research with existing cash flows and fold quantum into broader businesses later.
That matters because the pure-play quantum names can be exciting, but they are still fighting the hardest part of the story: turning scientific progress into repeatable revenue.
Morningstar explicitly warns that mainstream adoption may still be a long way off.
The upside case
IBM looks like the cleaner quantum winner on current evidence.
It has the most explicit upside signal in the Bernstein-linked coverage, plus a very visible roadmap, a large installed base, and major government and ecosystem support.
Reuters also reported that the U.S. government is taking equity stakes in nine quantum companies, with IBM set to receive half of the funding tied to a new venture.
Microsoft is the better “option on the future” stock.
It may not have the same direct upside call attached in the sources I found, but its scale, cloud distribution, and 2029 target make it one of the best-positioned companies to commercialize quantum if the technology matures as expected.
Verdict
Bernstein’s message is that the next era of tech will reward companies that can absorb heavy investment and still protect their economics.
Quantum computing fits that mold, but only a handful of companies have the balance sheets and infrastructure to stay in the race for the long haul.
Among the names tied most directly to the theme, IBM appears to have the clearest upside story right now, while Microsoft offers powerful long-term optionality.
Quantum may still be early, but the companies building for 2029 are already shaping the next phase of tech.
Note
Share this with someone tracking the next big tech cycle, and read it again when the quantum timeline starts moving faster.
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Thanks for reading: Bernstein Names Top Stocks for the Quantum Future, Sorry, my English is bad:)